Event Contracts on Kalshi: How Regulated Prediction Markets Change the Risk Map for U.S. Traders
Surprising fact to start: a binary contract that trades at $0.37 on a CFTC-regulated exchange is the market saying “37% chance” — but it is also an active piece of cleared financial exposure, not a social poll. That distinction matters because on Kalshi, each price is simultaneously a probability estimate, a tradable claim, and a […]